Demand for hired labor will be about 1 mn by 2025 – Labor Ministry
According to the mid-term forecast of the Center for Human Resources Development JSC, in the baseline (most likely) scenario, the demand for hired labor (new demand and demand for replacement) in Kazakhstan from 2021 to 2025 will total about 1 million people, Kazpravda.kz refers to the press service of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of Kazakhstan.
According to the optimistic scenario, these indicators will be slightly higher: it is assumed that the demand for hired labor in 5 years will amount to 1.2 million people, and according to the pessimistic scenario - 792.9 thousand people.
Basically, the demand for hired labor will be formed in the education sector, 16-18% of the total, depending on the scenario, as well as in the agriculture sector (from 7.6 to 10%) and in the manufacturing industry (9.7– 10.2%).
It is expected that during 2021-2025, the aggregate demand for employees in the baseline scenario will be formed by 55.3% (574 thousand) from new demand and by 44.7% (464.4 thousand) - from demand for replacement, of which 72% (332.7 thousand)
will be accounted for by replacement of employees who have reached retirement age.
The annual aggregate demand for hired workers in 2025 will amount to 244.3 thousand people, including 148.7 thousand representing new demand and 95.6 thousand - demand for replacement.
The need to replace workers reaching the retirement age by this time is expected to grow by 15% (from 59.2 thousand in 2021 to 68.3 thousand in 2025).
The greatest 5-year need for hired workers due to their departure for age and other natural reasons will take place in education (64.5 thousand people), as well as agriculture (44.6 thousand people) and manufacturing (44, 2 thousand people).
In general, the workforce by 2025 under the baseline scenario will be 9.3 million people, of which 7.7 will be hired employees, and 1.2 million will be other categories of the employed population. At the same time, it is expected that the number of unemployed will be 439 000 people, i.e. the unemployment rate will be at 4.7%.
In the optimistic scenario, the labor force will be 9.4 million people, of which 7.9 million are hired workers, other categories- 1.1 million, and the number of unemployed will be 442 000.
“In the pessimistic scenario, by 2025 we expect 9.3 million people in the labor force, of which 7.5 million will be hired workers and 1.4 million other employed people. The number of unemployed will amount to 436 000 people. Unemployment rate decrease to the expected 4.7%, according to our forecasts, will go gradually. In the current and next year, we may reach 5%, and after that this figure will decline by 0.1 pp per year,” the director of forecasting department of the Center, Dmitry Shumekov, said.